Wednesday March 17 , 2010

GBP/USD outlook

We expect that GBPUSD is still forming the fourth wave of the downside move that started at 1.63000 levels as seen on our provided four-hour chart. Therefore, the recently established ascending channel that controls the movements should continue taking the pair between 1.53000 -38.2% Fibonacci- and 1.54370 -50% Fibonacci- for the entire third wave followed by sharp declines, where the fifth wave will be in progress, targeting the level of 1.45000. There are three technical evidences that cable is preparing for a new descending wave. Negative crossover on Stochastic and momentum indicator representative. And negative divergence on OsMA.



Senior Analyst / Ali Hasan /FXCBS

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In the UK yesterday economists warned of a "sluggish" recovery in the economy this year, ahead of tomorrow's Budget. The Confederation of British Industry said it expected the economy to grow by 1% in 2010, with the recovery remaining subdued until the middle of next year. The government forecasts growth of 1.25% this year and 3.5% for 2011. However the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, may revise those predictions in the Budget tomorrow.

After the report was released the Pound weakened further against both the US Dollar and the Euro, it closed trading down 0.36% against the Euro at EUR 0.8978.

British Consumer Price Index data is due to be released later today. Governor King from the Bank of England said yesterday that first quarter inflation was likely to be in line with the Banks forecast of 3.1%

Chancellor Alaistair Darling has reiterated there will be "no giveaways" ahead of the general election. The budget is expected to focus on encouraging private sector investment and securing long term economic growth. The government plans to halve the budget deficit - which is one of the highest in Europe and is expected to hit about 12.6% of GDP this financial year, well above the European Union threshold of 3% - over the next four years.